Home prices flat in June, FHFA says; Case-Shiller gain picks up
FHFA's index held steady from May and is up 2.3% from a year earlier, while Case-Shiller's annual gain rose to 1.5%. New-home sales fell in July, and both price gauges still trail inflation.
By American Policy WireFiled
The bottom line Home values are still rising slowly on paper but losing ground to inflation, and with new-home supply near 10 months and rates above 6.6%, buyers in many markets have more room to negotiate than a year ago.
The two main home price gauges pointed in slightly different directions for June. The Federal Housing Finance Agency said its index was unchanged from May, while the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller national index showed annual growth picking up to 1.5% from 1.2% [1, 3].
Why it matters: Both readings, released Aug. 25, say the same thing about the bigger picture: home prices are still rising in dollar terms but more slowly than overall prices [2, 3]. S&P said U.S. home values have now fallen in real terms for 13 straight months, with June’s 3.5% inflation about 2 percentage points above the home price gain [3]. For owners, that means modest equity growth. For buyers, slow price growth has not offset borrowing costs: the 30-year average was still above 6.6% last week [5].
How we got here: In May, FHFA’s index rose 0.3% and Case-Shiller’s national gain was first reported at 1.1%, as we covered in our story on the May data. FHFA left that May gain unchanged in its June report, and S&P now puts May’s annual gain at 1.2% [2, 3].
By the numbers
- 0.0% and 2.3%: FHFA’s monthly and 12-month changes for June, seasonally adjusted [2].
- 2.1%: FHFA’s annual gain for the second quarter, with prices up 0.3% from the first quarter [1].
- 46 states: Prices rose in 46 states and the District of Columbia over the year to the second quarter, and in 76 of the 100 largest metro areas [1].
- 1.5%, 2.1% and 2.9%: Case-Shiller’s annual gains for the national index and the 20-city and 10-city composites [3].
- 9.6 months: The supply of new homes for sale at July’s sales pace, up from 8.5 months in June [4].
Where are prices rising fastest? The Midwest and Northeast. Chicago led Case-Shiller’s 20 metros for the fourth month in a row at 6.9%, followed by New York at 4.8% and Cleveland at 4.1% [3]. Seattle fell 2.0%, Las Vegas 1.9% and Denver 1.2% [3].
FHFA’s state data adds detail. Alaska led at 8.3% over the year, then Vermont at 7.3% and Hawaii at 5.8% [1]. Four states posted declines, led by New Mexico at 1.2% [1]. Among large metros, Elgin, Ill., rose 7.7% and Everett, Wash., fell 3.7% [1]. All nine census divisions were up from a year earlier, though the Pacific division only slightly, by FHFA’s quarterly measure [1]. On the monthly series, the Pacific’s 12-month gain through June was 0.4% [2]. East North Central led at 4.9% [2].
“This geographic divide reflects a years-long trend, with housing markets in the Northeast and Midwest regaining strength while many Western and Sunbelt markets soften,” said Rebecca Kaufman, associate director of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices [3].
New homes lost momentum. Builders sold new single-family homes at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 in July, down 10.5% from a June rate that was revised up to 678,000 [4]. Sales were 6.3% below July 2025 [4]. The median new-home price was $393,800, down 2.3% from June and 0.9% from a year earlier; the average rose 4.1% to $508,800 [4]. Inventory climbed to 488,000 homes for sale [4].
What it means for buyers and owners
- Rates have not eased much. Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed average was 6.66% on Aug. 27, compared with 6.56% a year earlier; the 15-year averaged 5.98% [5].
- New homes give buyers the most room. Builders have 9.6 months of supply and a median price below last year’s [4].
- Your local market matters more than the national figure. A Chicago owner has seen 6.9% growth in a year, while a Seattle owner has lost 2.0% [3].
- Owners with low rates are staying put. Kaufman said “current homeowners remain reluctant to give up the low mortgage rates secured in prior years,” with 30-year rates near 6.5% in June [3].
- The Fed’s rate is a separate lever. The Fed held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29, with three officials voting for a quarter-point increase [6].
What’s next: FHFA releases July prices on Sept. 29 and third-quarter data on Nov. 24 [1]. The Census Bureau’s August new home sales report is due Sept. 24 [4].
The other side: Kaufman read June as a modest improvement, saying homeowners and renters “breathed a sigh of relief” as inflation cooled while price growth firmed [3]. More current data is softer. HousingWire’s weekly figures put the median list price at $442,500 for the week ending Aug. 22, down 1.6% from a year earlier and 1.5% from a month earlier [7]. Kaufman herself noted that because June falls near the peak of the buying season, “price appreciation often moderates” in the months after [3]. And the Census Bureau’s range for July’s sales drop, plus or minus 14.0%, includes zero, so it cannot say for certain that sales fell at all [4].
Q&A Quick answers
- Q1Did home prices go up in June 2026?
- Barely, by FHFA's measure: its seasonally adjusted index was unchanged from May and 2.3% above June 2025 [2]. The Case-Shiller national index rose 1.5% over the year [3].
- Q2Are home prices falling after inflation?
- Yes, by S&P's reckoning. June was the 13th straight month in which the Case-Shiller national gain ran below inflation, which S&P put at 3.5% [3].
- Q3Which states had the biggest home price gains in the second quarter of 2026?
- Alaska led at 8.3% from a year earlier, followed by Vermont at 7.3% and Hawaii at 5.8%, FHFA reported [1]. New Mexico had the largest decline, 1.2% [1].
- Q4How many new homes sold in July 2026?
- New single-family homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000, down 10.5% from June's revised 678,000, though the Census Bureau's margin of error is plus or minus 14.0% [4].
- Q5When is the next FHFA house price report?
- FHFA publishes July data on Sept. 29, 2026, and its third-quarter report on Nov. 24 [1].