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Rate WatchFed funds 3.75%–4.00%30-yr fixed 7.18%15-yr fixed 6.57%as of

home prices

Home prices rise 0.3% in August as FHFA trims July's gain

FHFA's index is up 2.4% from a year earlier, and Case-Shiller's national gain picked up to 2.1%. S&P says prices still trail 3.4% inflation, now for a 15th month.

By American Policy WireFiled

Rate WatchAs of
MeasureRate
Fed funds targetFOMC range3.75%–4.00%
30-year fixedFreddie Mac PMMS avg.7.24%
15-year fixedFreddie Mac PMMS avg.6.60%
Sources [4], [8]

The bottom line Home prices are gaining a little faster but still lag inflation, and mortgage rates have climbed since the August sales these indexes measure.

Seattle home prices fell 2.0% in the year to August, the steepest drop among Case-Shiller’s metros for a third straight month, while Chicago’s rose 6.7% [3]. Nationally, prices kept edging up: the Federal Housing Finance Agency said Oct. 27 its index rose 0.3% in August and 2.4% from a year earlier [1].

Why it matters: Owners gained a bit more equity, but buyers face higher borrowing costs than the people whose purchases these indexes track. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average was 6.66% at the end of August and 7.24% in Thursday’s survey [4, 5]. S&P Dow Jones Indices said home values have now fallen in real terms for 15 straight months [3].

How we got here: FHFA first reported a 0.3% gain for July, as we covered on Sept. 29. It has now cut that to 0.2% and left June unchanged at zero [2]. Case-Shiller’s national gain rose to 2.1% from 1.9% in July [3].

By the numbers

  • 0.3% and 2.4%: FHFA’s monthly and 12-month changes for August, seasonally adjusted [1].
  • 2.1%, 2.7% and 3.6%: Case-Shiller’s annual gains for the national index and the 20-city and 10-city composites; the two composites were at 2.5% and 3.4% a month earlier [3].
  • +2.1% vs. -0.8%: The August moves in FHFA’s East South Central and New England divisions, the widest spread among the nine [1].
  • 5 of 19: Case-Shiller metros with August data that posted annual declines: Seattle, Las Vegas, Dallas, Denver and Tampa [3].
  • 9.3%: How far the Case-Shiller national index sits above its June 2022 peak; it is 15.1% above the January 2023 low [3].

Did home prices actually fall in August?

It depends on the adjustment. Before seasonal adjustment, the Case-Shiller national index slipped 0.2% from July and both composites fell 0.4% [3]. After adjustment, the national index rose 0.3%, the 10-city 0.4% and the 20-city 0.3% [3]. S&P’s adjusted series are meant to strip out the usual post-summer slowdown [3].

Rebecca Kaufman, associate director of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, read the split as a sign of hidden strength. “The divergence suggests that the typical post-summer slowdown is obscuring some underlying strength in home prices,” she said [3]. On a raw basis, only Chicago and Miami gained for the month among the 19 metros with August data [3].

FHFA’s regions moved in different directions too. The Middle Atlantic, which led in July with a gain now revised to 1.3% from 1.5%, was flat in August [2]. The Mountain division rose 0.3% for the month, but its 0.5% annual gain is the weakest of the nine; the East North Central’s 4.4% is the strongest [1, 2].

What it means for buyers and owners

  • Rates have moved more than prices. The 30-year average was 7.24% and the 15-year 6.60% in the week to Oct. 29, down from 7.40% for the 30-year two weeks earlier but up from 6.17% a year ago [4, 6, 7]. The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28, with two officials voting for a hike [8].
  • Where you live matters. An owner in New York has seen a 6.2% annual gain; one in Dallas or Denver has seen a decline of about 0.8% [3].
  • Loan limits use FHFA data. FHFA adjusts the conforming loan limits, the cap on loans Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can buy, using a broader version of its index called the Expanded-Data HPI [2].
  • The real-terms gap narrowed. S&P’s inflation figure held at 3.4% while the national gain sped up, cutting the shortfall to 1.3 points from 1.5 [3].

What’s next: FHFA releases September data and its third-quarter report on Nov. 24 [1, 2]. Case-Shiller indexes come out on the last Tuesday of each month [3].

The other side: Faster price growth is a mixed signal for buyers. Kaufman said “affordability, however, remains challenging,” pointing to 3.4% inflation and Brent crude near $100 a barrel alongside high prices [3]. Her release put mortgage rates in the mid-to-high 6% range, which matches Freddie Mac’s August readings but not this week’s 7.24% [3, 4, 5]. Whether the adjusted gains show real demand or a seasonal model at work in a slow market is not settled by one month of data.

Q&A Quick answers

Q1How much did home prices rise in August 2026?
FHFA's seasonally adjusted index rose 0.3% from July and 2.4% from August 2025 [1]. The Case-Shiller national index was up 2.1% from a year earlier [3].
Q2Did FHFA revise its July 2026 home price figure?
Yes. FHFA now puts July's monthly gain at 0.2%, down from the 0.3% it first reported [1].
Q3Which cities had the biggest home price changes in August 2026?
Chicago led Case-Shiller's 19 reporting metros with a 6.7% annual gain, ahead of New York at 6.2% and Cleveland at 4.3% [3]. Seattle had the steepest decline, 2.0% [3].
Q4Are home prices beating inflation in 2026?
Not by S&P's measure. It counts August as the 15th straight month of real declines, with consumer prices up 3.4% against a 2.1% national gain [3].
Q5When is FHFA's next home price report?
Nov. 24, 2026, with monthly data through September and third-quarter figures [1, 2].